Politics: Indonesia’s Parliamentary Elections: What’s Next?

Guest Post from Dragoman

The official results of Indonesia’s legislative elections were recently announced in Jakarta, indicating that President Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party (PD), with 150 seats out of the total 560, will hold the largest number of seats in the upcoming parliamentary session. Golkar will hold 107 seats, while Megawati’s Indonesian Democratic Party—Struggle (PDI-P), with 95 seats. These results set the stage for a real opposition to PD leadership in the Indonesian lower house and a three-way contest for the upcoming presidential election on July 8, 2009.

Newcomers to Indonesian Politics

Two newcomers, Prabowo’s Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and Wiranto’s National Conscience Party (Hanura), managed to obtain 26 and 18 parliamentary seats respectively, picking up slightly more than the 2.5% threshold needed to seat their elected representatives in parliament. Although they constitute two of the three former senior Indonesian military officers currently involved in parliamentary politics, Prabowo, a former lieutenant-general of the Indonesian special forces and a son-in-law of Soeharto’s, and Wiranto, a former Indonesian army general, have not played up their military affiliation or attempted to reverse the reformist program of keeping the Indonesian military out of politics. Both Gerindra and Hanura are widely considered nationalist parties, although Prabowo was known to be affiliated with the Green, or Islamist, faction in the Indonesian military.

Islamic Parties

Fewer Indonesians voted for Islamic parties in this legislative election in comparison to 2004, as the four major Islamic parties, the urban-rooted Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the Muhammadiyah*-aligned National Mandate Party (PAN), the rural-based United Development Party (PPP), and the Nahdatul Ulama**-associated National Awakening Party (PKB), suffered tremendous electoral setbacks. Still, the Islamic parties will constitute more than 20% of Indonesia’s lower house. Although their number of parliamentary seats will comprise a distinct minority in the nationalist-dominated lower house, the Islamic parties will not likely form an independent, pan-Islamic faction, because these personality-driven parties have different, often contradictory, political aims and strategy and frequently clash more with each other than with the nationalist-leaning parties.

Presidential Election—July 8

With the results of the legislative elections publicly tallied and declared, Indonesia is preparing for the upcoming presidential election that will return the president and the vice president for the 2009-2014 period. The election will take place on July 8, 2009, with a possible runoff round on September 8. To field a presidential candidate, a political party or a coalition must control 20% of the seats in the Indonesian lower house or has obtained at least 25% of the popular vote in the April elections. To win the presidential election, a candidate needs to acquire more than half of the popular votes and at least 20% in half of Indonesia’s 33 provinces. Indonesian law requires that presidential candidates debate each other in public three times between June 13 and July 4, 2009, while vice presidential candidates are expected to do so twice.

Forming Coalitions

Three parliamentary coalitions have emerged in this presidential race. The incumbent President Yudhoyono has publicly announced that he will run for the term-limited presidency again with Boediono, who was educated at Wharton and was the governor of the Indonesian central bank until he stepped down recently to run for office, as his running mate. President Yudhoyono’s PD has reached an agreement with the four major Islamic parties in parliament to form a coalition fielding Yudhoyono and Boediono for president and vice president. Golkar and Hanura have agreed to rally behind Vice President Jusuf Kalla, also the chairman of Golkar, and Wiranto in their bid for the presidency and the vice presidency. Meanwhile, PDI-P and Gerindra have come to an agreement to form a parliamentary alliance in support of Megawati Soekarnoputri and Prabowo in their campaign to become the next president and vice president of Indonesia.

Parliamentary Seat Distribution by Coalition

Campaign Politics and Looking Forward

While the presidential election campaign has largely been devoid of antagonism on specific policies and political positions, recent reports in the Indonesian media suggest two developments. The first shows that the state and the direction of the Indonesian economy remain central considerations among voters. Political rivals have hurled insinuations at President Yudhoyono’s running mate, Boediono. The charge: Boediono is a “neoliberalist” who would put foreign economic interests ahead of Indonesians’. Although many Indonesians would be at a loss when asked about economic neoliberalism, the fact that such intimations are so politically resonant in nationalistic Indonesia underlines the importance of the economy for the Indonesian electorate. Exactly by choosing Boediono, with his background abroad and the central bank, as his running mate, President Yudhoyono seems to signal that he remains committed to the reformist program of liberalizing the Indonesian economy even in the face of domestic opposition.

The second development centers on the stabilization of Indonesian politics and the diminishing influence of Islamism as a political force in Indonesia. More than a decade after the start of the reform movement in Indonesia, the country has at last reached a political scene where the competition of political power is open and democratic and the transfer of power peaceful. Despite the electoral success Islamic parties enjoyed in the 2004 elections, the results of the legislative election in April suggest that Islamism no longer enjoys the level of attraction politically that it once had for Indonesians. With three popularly legitimate general elections under its belt, Indonesia is now a bedrock of political and economic stability for democracy and peaceful power transitions in the region.

*The Muhammadiyah is the second-largest Islamic mass organization in Indonesia. It advocates a modernist and reformist outlook of Sunni Islam and claims around 29 million members. Amien Rais, the Chicago-trained chairman of the Muhammadiyah in the late 1990s, was at the forefront of the reform movement and founded PAN.

**The Nahdatul Ulama, meaning in Arabic the Awakening of the Islamic Scholars, is the largest Islamic mass organization in Indonesia. It is grounded in the conservative and traditionalist understanding of Sunni Islam and asserts a following of more than 30 million Indonesians. Abdurrahman Wahid, also known as Gus Dur, spearheaded the reform movement with Amien Rais and the nationalist Megawati Soekarnoputri, founded PKB, and became the first elected president of Indonesia after the fall of Soeharto in 1998.

The Dragoman welcomes and responds to all civil comments, critiques, and feedback. All official data were obtained at the Indonesian General Elections Commission.

The U.S.-ASEAN Business Council previously published this article in its latest Country Update: Indonesia report for the exclusive distribution to its corporate members. The Dragoman wishes to acknowledge the Council’s kind permission in allowing this article to be republished in this blog.

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