The Moscow Times recently reported that Russia and Japan had agreed to expand their bilateral nuclear cooperation during Prime Minister Putin’s visit to Tokyo. The deal, which still awaits ratification in the Diet, will supply uranium fuel to Japanese nuclear reactors, enable Japanese firms to mine uranium in Russia, and may pave the way for the joint construction of a uranium-enrichment plant in “Japan or another country.”

Japan and Russia, still technically at war with each other, have much to gain from this nuclear agreement. With this agreement in hand, Japan is taking another step towards diversifying its energy sources, while Russia obtains access to Japanese technology (and money) in its efforts to expand its nuclear industry and to develop, presumably, Siberia. But the inclusion in the agreement of the phrase “Japan or another country,” and what the phrase may mean for the future of security in Northeast Asia, is the most intriguing aspect of this piece of news.

Following the Six-Party Talks, the most important contemporary security framework in Northeast Asia, was an exhausting, and at times depressing, travail. Historical antagonism, ideological imperatives, and a changing regional balance of power—not to mention, the threat of a nuclear calamity in the region—made for a volatile background to these important negotiations. An intransigent North Korea, a South Korea increasingly tired of its Northern cousins, a distracted America, an indifferent Russia, a skeptical Japan, and a China disinclined to perturb its relations with North Korea have left the Talks in tatters, exposing Northeast Asia to greater strategic uncertainty and, possibly, catastrophic danger.

Apart from South Korea, Japan stands the most to lose should the Korean Question not be resolved peacefully. Yet, Japan also seemed to be the most uncomfortable and reluctant country in the Six-Party Talks and one that is diplomatically weakest from its failure to mend fences properly and seriously with its neighbors. The combination of Japan’s failed attempts to engage other Northeast Asian countries meaningfully and its resultant lack of diplomatic clout in the region has put Japan in the unenviable position of bearing the brunt of North Korea’s capricious provocations with little ability to either forestall those provocations or score political points from them. As a result, Japan adopted a standoff position throughout the Six-Party Talks and appeared leery of any development, positive or negative, that resulted from the Talks.

Although the danger of reading too much into the inclusion of the phrase in the Russo-Japanese agreement remains great, the phrase, and the agreement, may provide another opportunity to nudge Northeast Asia’s security situation in a positive direction. Regardless of whether it was serendipity or the allure of cold, hard cash that pulled Japan into the emerging Russocentric nuclear architecture of Northeast Asia, the country’s nuclear agreement with Russia can be used to lay a stronger foundation for future regional security discussions, precisely because the nuclear issue is often at the center of discussions about Northeast Asia’s security. The phrase has the potential to map how Japan can contribute to a peaceful resolution of the Korean Question without instigating too much suspicion in the region’s capitals. Having concluded a similar nuclear arrangement with China in 2008, Russia—which, it must be noted, has historically maintained, like China, a reasonably good relationship with North Korea—is perhaps the best country to include Japan in the region’s engagement with North Korea on the nuclear issue. The successful negotiation of the 2008 deal and the fact that Russia, not the United States, is the country to bring Japan in on the nuclear cooperation may allay China’s and South Korea’s traditional distrust of Japan, although the question whether the United States would accept this incipient arrangement is potentially, as always, the most important.

Notwithstanding whether North Korea’s present petulance portends the absolute end of the Six-Party Talks, the Russo-Japanese nuclear deal may provide another diplomatic block available for the construction of a peaceful resolution to the North Korean Question. For now, not all hopes for a more secure future are lost in Northeast Asia.

The Dragoman welcomes and responds to all civil comments, critiques, and feedback.

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The official results of Indonesia’s legislative elections were recently announced in Jakarta, indicating that President Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party (PD), with 150 seats out of the total 560, will hold the largest number of seats in the upcoming parliamentary session. Golkar will hold 107 seats, while Megawati’s Indonesian Democratic Party—Struggle (PDI-P), with 95 seats. These results set the stage for a real opposition to PD leadership in the Indonesian lower house and a three-way contest for the upcoming presidential election on July 8, 2009.

Party Name

Official Popular Votes Percentage

Democratic Party (PD)

20.85%

Golkar

14.45%

Indonesian Democratic Party—Struggle (PDI-P)

14.03%

Prosperous Justice Party (PKS)

7.88%

National Mandate Party (PAN)

6.01%

United Development Party (PPP)

5.32%

National Awakening Party (PKB)

4.94%

Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra)

4.46%

National Conscience Party (Hanura)

3.77%

Newcomers to Indonesian Politics

Two newcomers, Prabowo’s Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and Wiranto’s National Conscience Party (Hanura), managed to obtain 26 and 18 parliamentary seats respectively, picking up slightly more than the 2.5% threshold needed to seat their elected representatives in parliament. Although they constitute two of the three former senior Indonesian military officers currently involved in parliamentary politics, Prabowo, a former lieutenant-general of the Indonesian special forces and a son-in-law of Soeharto’s, and Wiranto, a former Indonesian army general, have not played up their military affiliation or attempted to reverse the reformist program of keeping the Indonesian military out of politics. Both Gerindra and Hanura are widely considered nationalist parties, although Prabowo was known to be affiliated with the Green, or Islamist, faction in the Indonesian military.

Islamic Parties

Fewer Indonesians voted for Islamic parties in this legislative election in comparison to 2004, as the four major Islamic parties, the urban-rooted Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the Muhammadiyah*-aligned National Mandate Party (PAN), the rural-based United Development Party (PPP), and the Nahdatul Ulama**-associated National Awakening Party (PKB), suffered tremendous electoral setbacks. Still, the Islamic parties will constitute more than 20% of Indonesia’s lower house. Although their number of parliamentary seats will comprise a distinct minority in the nationalist-dominated lower house, the Islamic parties will not likely form an independent, pan-Islamic faction, because these personality-driven parties have different, often contradictory, political aims and strategy and frequently clash more with each other than with the nationalist-leaning parties.

Presidential Election—July 8

With the results of the legislative elections publicly tallied and declared, Indonesia is preparing for the upcoming presidential election that will return the president and the vice president for the 2009-2014 period. The election will take place on July 8, 2009, with a possible runoff round on September 8. To field a presidential candidate, a political party or a coalition must control 20% of the seats in the Indonesian lower house or has obtained at least 25% of the popular vote in the April elections. To win the presidential election, a candidate needs to acquire more than half of the popular votes and at least 20% in half of Indonesia’s 33 provinces. Indonesian law requires that presidential candidates debate each other in public three times between June 13 and July 4, 2009, while vice presidential candidates are expected to do so twice.

Forming Coalitions

Three parliamentary coalitions have emerged in this presidential race. The incumbent President Yudhoyono has publicly announced that he will run for the term-limited presidency again with Boediono, who was educated at Wharton and was the governor of the Indonesian central bank until he stepped down recently to run for office, as his running mate. President Yudhoyono’s PD has reached an agreement with the four major Islamic parties in parliament to form a coalition fielding Yudhoyono and Boediono for president and vice president. Golkar and Hanura have agreed to rally behind Vice President Jusuf Kalla, also the chairman of Golkar, and Wiranto in their bid for the presidency and the vice presidency. Meanwhile, PDI-P and Gerindra have come to an agreement to form a parliamentary alliance in support of Megawati Soekarnoputri and Prabowo in their campaign to become the next president and vice president of Indonesia.

Parliamentary Seat Distribution by Coalition

Coalition

Parliamentary Seats

The SBY-Boediono Coalition

314

Democratic Party (PD)

150

Prosperous Justice Party (PKS)

57

National Mandate Party (PAN)

43

United Development Party (PPP)

37

National Awakening Party (PKB)

27

The Jusuf Kalla-Wiranto Coalition

125

Golkar

107

National Conscience Party (Hanura)

18

The Megawati Soekarnoputri-Prabowo Coalition

121

Indonesian Democratic Party—Struggle (PDI-P)

95

Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra)

26

Campaign Politics and Looking Forward

While the presidential election campaign has largely been devoid of antagonism on specific policies and political positions, recent reports in the Indonesian media suggest two developments. The first shows that the state and the direction of the Indonesian economy remain central considerations among voters. Political rivals have hurled insinuations at President Yudhoyono’s running mate, Boediono. The charge: Boediono is a “neoliberalist” who would put foreign economic interests ahead of Indonesians’. Although many Indonesians would be at a loss when asked about economic neoliberalism, the fact that such intimations are so politically resonant in nationalistic Indonesia underlines the importance of the economy for the Indonesian electorate. Exactly by choosing Boediono, with his background abroad and the central bank, as his running mate, President Yudhoyono seems to signal that he remains committed to the reformist program of liberalizing the Indonesian economy even in the face of domestic opposition.

The second development centers on the stabilization of Indonesian politics and the diminishing influence of Islamism as a political force in Indonesia. More than a decade after the start of the reform movement in Indonesia, the country has at last reached a political scene where the competition of political power is open and democratic and the transfer of power peaceful. Despite the electoral success Islamic parties enjoyed in the 2004 elections, the results of the legislative election in April suggest that Islamism no longer enjoys the level of attraction politically that it once had for Indonesians. With three popularly legitimate general elections under its belt, Indonesia is now a bedrock of political and economic stability for democracy and peaceful power transitions in the region.

*The Muhammadiyah is the second-largest Islamic mass organization in Indonesia. It advocates a modernist and reformist outlook of Sunni Islam and claims around 29 million members. Amien Rais, the Chicago-trained chairman of the Muhammadiyah in the late 1990s, was at the forefront of the reform movement and founded PAN.

**The Nahdatul Ulama, meaning in Arabic the Awakening of the Islamic Scholars, is the largest Islamic mass organization in Indonesia. It is grounded in the conservative and traditionalist understanding of Sunni Islam and asserts a following of more than 30 million Indonesians. Abdurrahman Wahid, also known as Gus Dur, spearheaded the reform movement with Amien Rais and the nationalist Megawati Soekarnoputri, founded PKB, and became the first elected president of Indonesia after the fall of Soeharto in 1998.

The Dragoman welcomes and responds to all civil comments, critiques, and feedback. All official data were obtained at the Indonesian General Elections Commission.

The U.S.-ASEAN Business Council previously published this article in its latest Country Update: Indonesia report for the exclusive distribution to its corporate members. The Dragoman wishes to acknowledge the Council’s kind permission in allowing this article to be republished in this blog.

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Foreign Policy’s blog has a short post about observing Singapore’s port traffic through Google Earth. By looking at the images on this program, you can get a real sense of how bad the economic situation is. For Singapore, the visible sign is the decline in vessel movements. Using a special product called AIS Vessel Data, you can actually see how much port traffic has declined, which means bad news for Singapore’s economic outlook.

Given the lack of land and natural resources, the ports in Singapore are an economic necessity. Over the past couple of years, however, trade has declined significantly. International Economy notes:

The world’s busiest port for container traffic, Singapore saw its year-over-year volume drop by 19.6 percent in January 2009, followed by a 19.8 percent drop in February. As of mid-March 2009, 11.3 percent of the world’s shipping capacity, sat idle, a record.

It is no surprise that Singapore’s economy is expected to shrink in 2009.

There is a lot to say about the economic conditions in Singapore, but that is not really the purpose of this post. I mainly wanted to show how you can see physical signs of the economic troubles using Google Earth’s technology. Prior to seeing this post, a buddy of mine in NYC was asking me a lot about the port situation. Although I had recently been near some of the major ports, it was hard to get a sense of how bad it was since I did not have a point of comparison before the downturn. Using the Vessel Data program, however, you can actually see the changes, which is really interesting.

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More than ten years ago, popular agitation in Indonesia, particularly in Jakarta, led to the downfall of post-colonial Southeast Asia’s longest-ruling strongman Soeharto. Since May 1998, Indonesia has moved from soft authoritarianism to being a thriving regional democracy with the experience of three relatively orderly and popularly legitimate general elections. With the results from the past April’s parliamentary elections announced recently in Jakarta, Indonesia is already preparing for the upcoming presidential election in July. Democracy seems to have been consolidated so far and the notorious Indonesian army is back in the barracks and out of politics, although the Islamists, who were suppressed under Soeharto, might become the junior partner in the governing coalition despite a tremendous electoral setback in this election cycle. (But is this particular last point not a sign of democracy maturing in Indonesia?)

These happy developments in Indonesia must come as a jarring shock to those who were advocates of the Asian Values in the 1990s as a historically and socioculturally based justification why Asia does not apply Western liberal values and institutions in its diverse national environments. In the Southeast Asian context specifically, the shock must be particularly unsettling. This is the case, because, while they generally spoke in defense of their respective governments, these advocates of the Asian Values had, consciously or unconsciously, Soeharto’s New Order regime in mind as the longest-lasting and most stable model of an Asian Values-imbued regime.

Although the advocacy petered out in the wake of the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s, the debate about the Asian Values remains as valid today as it was in the heyday of soft authoritarianism in Asia. Just (or precisely) because the archetypal Asian Values state has moved on to embrace liberal democracy, the Asian Values debate is still worth revisiting. After all, Singapore is still led by a Lee, Malaysia’s ruling Barisan Nasional is still generally what it was under Mahathir, the state of democracy in the Philippines is hardly what it was after the People Power Revolution, and liberal democracy still seems hard to take root in mainland Southeast Asia.

But what does Indonesia’s embrace of democracy mean for future debates on the merits of a democratic mode of governance that is both inclusive but raucous versus a non-democratic mode that is firm, steady and pays economic dividends? The first implication is that liberal democracy can thrive in and is compatible with (Southeast) Asia. In the final analysis, Indonesians remain as Asian now as they were under Soeharto, liberal democracy notwithstanding. The second implication is that the embrace of democracy might weaken secessionist sentiments in a (Southeast) Asian state. The menacing whispers circulating around Jakarta in the heady days after Soeharto’s resignation concerned the fear that Indonesia was on the verge of Balkanization with a weak and turbulent center unable to control the outlying, grossly dissatisfied provinces. Giving the politically repressed, be they Islamists, Acehnese, Moluccans, or Papuans, a voice in a democratic Indonesia has meant giving them a stake in the continuance of a unified Indonesia. The third implication concerns the fear of economic instability or deterioration associated with democratization. But must this always be the case? External economic situation permitting, which, it must be noted, was not quite the situation that accompanied Indonesia’s turbulent transition to democracy, a competent and ingenious government, allied with supportive private concerns, could conceivably guide its economy through the tempest of democratization. Would an economy based on a popularly legitimate and thus inherently long-lasting and stable political system not be a better foundation for economic growth in the long run?

The energy and will behind the Asian Values debate in the 1990s may have been sapped by the Asian Financial Crisis and a West increasingly preoccupied with other regions of the world. But global developments have spiraled upward to a similar configuration of situations that accompanied the first round of the Asian Values debate. Asia is enjoying another marked increase in its relative economic stature, this time as a region. The major players, and one giant, in the region might once again pick up the Asian Values argument in defense of their non-democratic mode of governance. The democratic embrace of Indonesia, the initial model Asian Values state in Southeast Asia, can provide lessons and inspirations should the debate be revisited.

The Dragoman welcomes and responds to all civil comments, critiques and feedback.

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Mandarin Post: Xiao Jie in Singapore, China

by maltzajava on May 9, 2009

I thought I would share this video from the Straits Times Razor TV. The hosts of this show are discussing a news story describing a woman from China yelling at a shop assistant for calling her ‘xiao jie’, which she interpreted as prostitute.

The term xiao jie is translated as ‘young lady’ or ‘miss’ , but in some parts of China, xiao jie refers to a prostitute. I first learned about this new meaning when I was studying Mandarin in Shanghai a few years ago, and have fortunately gotten in the habit of using other words to address females. In Singapore, however, xiao jie is still used in the same way we use ‘miss’ in English. For example, at a restaurant you will hear patrons using ‘xiao jie’ to address waitresses.

When I was in China last month, I heard many of my students using the xiao jie, and I advised them to use a different word (there are many). Although it is probably not as big of a deal in Shanghai, it is better to play it safe. I was speaking to a Chinese professor that told me a story about the first time she learned about xiao jie’s new meaning. Somewhere in central China, she called a waitress ‘xiao jie‘, to which the waitress replied, “your mom is a xiao jie“. She was quite confused, and it took some time for the two parties to understand each other.

As a sidenote – I find the comments under the video very entertaining. I wonder if a similar discussion would follow an event that involved a conflict between, say, British English and American English.

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New Contributor

by maltzajava on May 2, 2009

Since this site is becoming more serious, and less about my personal life, I decided to invite a friend to contribute. I am looking forward to his posts, as I am sure they will be of much higher quality than mine! He will be posting as “The Dragoman”, and his bio is below:

The Dragoman is the pseudonym of an Indonesian transplant in his 20s living in Washington, D.C. He holds a bachelor’s degree from the University of Virginia, where he studied politics, economics, and chemistry, and a master’s degree from the Johns Hopkins University, where he concentrated on economics and international relations. A long-standing observer of East Asian and Middle Eastern affairs, he has researched and assisted in publications focusing on topics as varied as Japanese nationalism, Sino-Vietnamese relations, Iranian domestic politics, and Turkish foreign policy in Central Asia. The Dragoman is also avidly interested in Russian history and Persian literature, and speaks fluent Indonesian, German, and Japanese, when he is not dabbling in Chinese and Turkish. The pseudonym referred to an interpreter-diplomat in the foreign service of the Ottoman court in Istanbul.

He can be contacted at tercumanieffendi at gmail dot com.

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Beerfest Asia 2009 in Singapore

by maltzajava on May 2, 2009

Beerfest Asia is in Singapore for the long weekend, so we thought it would be fun to check it out. This is the description from their site:

Beerfest Asia 2009 is the perfect opportunity to sample and taste up over 100 different kinds of beers under one roof. Let the beers of the world come to you from as far away as Chile, Mexico and Switzerland to traditional brewing nations such as Belgium, the USA and Germany, as well as the pride and joy of Asian beers from Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and beyond – over 100 beers from as affordable as $3 for you to enjoy under a marquee that also sits 1,500 people, German beer cellar style.

It is not very often that you get to have great beer for a decent price in Singapore. They had a pretty good selection (though smaller than I expected) of beers, food stalls, and live music. The best part of the night was when we got to see the AC/DC cover band ‘Hells Belles’ perform. They are a very energetic and entertaining cover band, which was a nice change of pace. Here is their bio:

World famous and ready to rock, Hell’s Belles is the premier all female AC/DC tribute act, blowing all comers away.

Playing ALL AC/DC, ALL the time, ALL over the globe, spanning ALL the pure rock brilliance of AC/DC’s career (from “High Voltage” to “Back and Black” and beyond), Hell’s Belles do justice to the Aussie legends with patented Hell’s Belles devotion, precision, and fury.  Endorsed by Angus Young himself (Blender Magazine; 2003), Hell’s Belles are the closest one can get without actually moving to Australia or joining AC/DC’s road crew.

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Swine Flu Measures in Singapore

by maltzajava on May 1, 2009

Singapore is taking precautions to ensure that everyone s healthy at work and school. Having experienced SARS, they have lots of procedures put in place to monitor citizens, and provide help in the event that someone is found sick.

Since I work at a school, we have to be extra careful since we have thousands of students together in one area. To do this, there is a temperature monitoring system put in place. All of the student have to bring thermometers (which they got for free at orientation), and take their temp once in the morning and once in the afternoon. For students that forget their thermometer, they can go to one of the many stations around school to get their temp taken. If they are below 37.5 degrees Celsius, they get a sicker that says “I Am Well”. The sticker is color-coded (morning and afternoon), and is stamped with a date. For staff members, we have to take our temp twice a day and log it into an online monitoring system. In addition, we have to monitor the students to make sure they have their stickers, and are feeling well.

For people traveling to Singapore, Changi airport will be monitoring their temperature, and detaining people that have traveled to affected areas. Here is part of the official release from the Ministry of Health website:

Even though as of 30th April 2009, there are no human cases of Mexican Swine Influenza in Singapore, MOH will be upgrading our Disease Outbreak Response System Alert status from Yellow to Orange. There is a real possibility that such cases may surface in Singapore and we must be prepared at all fronts to delay its spread to Singapore for as long as possible.

There are various new precautionary measures implemented under the Orange Alert Status.

Healthcare Institutions

  • Temperature screening and screening for flu like symptoms for visitors to clinical care areas would be implemented
  • Hospital staff are required to don PPE in all areas with patient contact
  • The number of visitors would also be restricted to one visitor per patient

Enhanced surveillance

Those with a travel history to Mexico over the past seven days will be quarantined for seven days on their return to Singapore and undergo phone surveillance for symptoms for Mexican Swine Influenza . Those who develop symptoms will be referred to the CDC for a thorough assessment. A dedicated ambulance service (tel 993) has been activated to convey such patients to CDC. Should evidence arise that other countries besides Mexico are exporting cases, MOH will also consider imposing similar conditions for travelers returning from those areas.

Members of the public who are returning from other affected areas (ie states of New York, California, Kansas and Texas in the United States and the state of Nova Scotia in Canada) are advised to stay at home for seven days upon return and check themselves for symptoms for Mexican swine flu. They should practice social distancing and refrain from joining mass gatherings, e.g. going to the cinemas, shopping malls, or supermarkets etc. Those who develop respiratory illness with fever (Temperature > 38C) within seven days after their return should put on a surgical mask, call 993 for an ambulance. They should also disclose their travel histories to their doctors.

If you have been following this blog, you might recall a post I wrote about “E-learning week”. Initially, I thought a full week of school without classess was pointless, but now I have changed my mind. I guess you do not really see the need for precautions until they end up serving a purpose. Oh well, I would rather be wrong than feel as if Singapore did not know what they were doing. After all, if it hits Singapore, we are all going to be in trouble.

Media coverage from Singapore’s paper can be found here.

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Day Trip to Kusu Island in Singapore

by maltzajava on April 28, 2009

On Sunday I went with some friends to Kusu Island in Singapore. The island is very small, and is just a short ferry ride off the south of Singapore.

Ferry to Kusu Island

Ferry to Kusu Island

The tiny island has a beautiful beach, but we were unable to enjoy it due to a thunderstorm. We sat in the pouring rain for a couple of hours, ran around like idiots for a bit, and then finally got on the ferry heading back to Singapore.

Legend has it that the island was formed by a giant sea turtle to save a Malay man and a Chinese man. To give thanks, the Malay built a kramat (Muslim shrine), and the Chinese built a Taoist shrine. Both Muslims and Chinese continue to make annual pilgrimages to the island during the ninth lunar month.

Other features from Wikipedia:

lived in the 19th century. Many devotees will climb the 152 steps leading to the kramats to pray for wealth, good marriage, good health and harmony. The shrines are also popular with childless couples who would pray for children. Despite misconceptions, they do not pray to the kramats.

It is popular for its lagoons, pristine beaches and tranquil settings. Visits are often made by ferry from the nearby Marina South Pier to see the wishing well and Tortoise Sanctuary. Afternoon picnics are also very popular. Overnight stay is not permitted on the island. However, most ferries to Kusu Island also take in Saint John’s Island which does have overnight lodging.

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My New Favorite Mandarin Review Site

by maltzajava on April 25, 2009

This is my new favorite study tool on the web. Skritter is a great way to review your writing skills, and to test you on tones. The site has lots of different vocabulary lists from various Chinese textbooks, and they are continually trying to add more. After you review, the site keep track of your retention rate and how long you have studied. The goal is to help you learn more characters at a faster rate.

The site could still be improved, but it is still great. The main reason for this, I feel, is the way that it keeps track of your progress and time. It makes me feel like I am playing a game, which makes it more fun. It is also addictive, so once I start I just keep going and going (until I have to go to work!). Instead of wasting time playing games, you can do it learning characters!

I should give a shout out to Bill since I first found this on his site.

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